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Climate change: A report from the World Meteorological Organization says the world could experience a warming of 1.5C in the next five years

The probability of exceeding 1.5°C for a short period has been increasing since 2015, with scientists estimating in 2020 a probability of 20% and revising last year’s to 40%. Even a year of 1.5°C warming can have disastrous effects, such as destroying many of the world’s coral reefs and shrinking Arctic sea ice cover.

In terms of the long-term average, the average global temperature is now about 1.1°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.

“Loss and damage associated with or exacerbated by climate change is already occurring, some of it likely to be irreversible for the foreseeable future,” said Maxx Dilley, deputy climate director at WMO.

World leaders pledged, as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement, to prevent the breach of the long-term threshold of 1.5°C measured as a multi-decade average, but so far they have not failed to reduce emissions that contribute to global warming. Today’s activities and current policies allow the world to warm by about 3.2°C by the end of the century.

“It’s important to remember that once we hit 1.5C, the lack of science-based emissions policies means we will experience worsening impacts as we approach 1. 6 C, 1.7 C and every increase in warming thereafter,” climate scientist Kim Cobb said. researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology.